Game Preview Boston Vs Mets 5/19/25

Mets: Kodai Senga (RHP)

Stats: 4-2, 1.02 ERA, 42 K, 1.17 WHIP in 44.1 IP 1512

Why Mets Fans Should Be Hyped: Senga’s been unhittable this month, posting a 0.57 ERA in May with just one earned run allowed over his last 15.2 innings. His Ghost Fork is MLB’s nastiest pitch right now, and he’s given up ONE homer all season. Fenway’s Green Monster? More like Senga’s playground—he’s 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA on the road in 2025 512.

Red Flag: Advanced metrics his 87.2% strand rate and elite K/9 (10.1) keep him in Cy Young talks 7.

Red Sox: Hunter Dobbins (RHP)

Stats: 2-1, 3.90 ERA, 23 K, 1.30 WHIP in 27.2 IP 1512

Why Mets Fans Should Smile: Dobbins is a rookie getting fed to the wolves. He’s allowed a .283 BA and got rocked for 5 ER in his last start vs. Detroit. The Mets’ lineup (6th in runs vs. RHP) will feast—especially Soto (.961 OPS vs. righties) and Alonso (.561 SLG) 712.

Silver Lining: Dobbins avoids walks (1.3 BB/9), but the Mets’ patience (Soto’s 37 walks) could wear him down early 12.

Key Storylines & Injury Report

Mets’ Road Woes: 12-13 away from Citi Field, but 13-6 vs. losing teams 5.

Red Sox’s Power Surge: 60 HRs (4th in AL), led by Rafael Devers (.517 SLG, 9 HRs) and Alex Bregman (.303 AVG). Devers is scorching with a 1.375 OPS in his last 10 games 112.

Injury Bug:

Mets: Jesse Winker (OF) out. Bullpen taxed after Yankees series 412.

Red Sox: Masataka Yoshida (OF), Triston Casas (1B) sidelined 4.

Betting Tips from Anthony’s Notebook

Moneyline: Mets (-130)

Senga’s dominance (1.02 ERA) vs. Dobbins’ vulnerabilities (.283 BA allowed) tilts this. The Mets are 17-1 in their last 18 when allowing ≤3 runs 512.

Run Line: Mets -1.5 (+115)

Four of Senga’s five wins came by 2+ runs. Boston’s bullpen (4.45 ERA) is a liability late 512.

Total: UNDER 9 (-102)

Senga’s starts average 6.8 total runs. Mets’ last 5 road games stayed under 57.

Player Props:

Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105): Facing a shaky righty? Soto’s due after a 1-for-10 Subway Series 112.

Pete Alonso HR (+240): “Polar Bear” loves Fenway’s short porch. Dobbins allows 1.3 HR/9 712.

Anthony’s Prediction

Senga’s Ghost Fork silences Boston’s bats early, but Devers tags him for a solo shot. The Mets’ offense wakes up in the 4th: Soto walks, steals second, and Alonso drives him in with a double. Lindor adds insurance with a sac fly. Boston rallies late against the Mets’ tired pen, but Díaz slams the door with a 99 mph heater past Jarren Duran.

Final Score: Mets 4, Red Sox 2

Best Bets: Mets ML (-130), UNDER 9 (-102), Soto Over 1.5 TB (+105)