What If the Mets Sign Shelby Miller in 2025?

As the offseason progresses, the New York Mets are undoubtedly evaluating potential additions to bolster their pitching staff. One intriguing name in the market is Brad Keller, a former Kansas City Royals starter who could offer a low-cost, high-reward option for a rotation or bullpen upgrade. But can the Mets realistically land Keller, and is he the right fit?

Keller's Recent Performance

Brad Keller, 28, has had an up-and-down career since breaking into the majors in 2018. Known for his sinker-heavy arsenal, Keller found early success with the Royals, posting a career-best 3.08 ERA in 2020. However, his performance has been inconsistent since then. In 2023, Keller struggled with injuries and control, finishing the season with a 5.36 ERA and an alarming 10.4 BB/9 over 39.1 innings pitched.

Despite these numbers, Keller's potential remains enticing. His ability to induce ground balls and his career track record as a durable innings-eater prior to 2023 make him a prime candidate for a bounce-back campaign.

What If the Mets Sign Shelby Miller in 2025?

Keller's ability to shift between starting and relief roles also adds to his appeal. He could begin the season in the bullpen, where his sinker-slider combo could be weaponized for short outings, or he could compete for a back-end rotation spot. If the Mets' top-tier starters remain healthy, Keller provides valuable insurance. If injuries occur, he’s a proven MLB arm capable of stepping into a larger role.

What Would It Take to Sign Keller?

Keller is not expected to command a large contract. Coming off a rough season and lingering injury concerns, he’s likely looking at a one-year deal with a team willing to offer him a chance to rebuild his value. A contract in the $3-5 million range with performance incentives could be enough to land him.

The Mets' financial flexibility, even after their midseason salary dumps, gives them an edge over smaller-market teams. Additionally, New York’s recent track record of revitalizing pitchers like Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco could be a selling point for Keller.

Potential Competition

The Mets won’t be the only team in the mix for Keller’s services. Organizations prioritizing affordable pitching depth, such as the Pittsburgh Pirates, Oakland Athletics, or Chicago Cubs, may also pursue him. However, the Mets' ability to offer a competitive salary and a clear role could make them the frontrunners.

Is Keller the Right Fit?

While Keller’s control issues in 2023 are concerning, the Mets’ pitching staff could help him rediscover the command that made him successful earlier in his career. With a revamped analytics department and a focus on optimizing pitch arsenals, the Mets are well-positioned to help Keller get back on track.

For Keller, the Mets represent an opportunity to join a contending team and rebuild his value in a high-profile market. For the Mets, he’s a low-risk, high-reward option who fits seamlessly into their depth-focused pitching strategy.

Final Verdict

The Mets landing Brad Keller would be a smart move if they can secure him on a short-term, incentive-laden deal. He’s not a marquee name, but his versatility and bounce-back potential make him an ideal addition to a team looking to solidify its pitching depth. With mutual benefits for both parties, don’t be surprised if Keller ends up in Queens this offseason.