Mets vs Royals Game 2 Preview & Betting Predictions 7/12/25

Alright, squad, Anthony here. Let's break down tonight's battle at The K as the Mets roll into Kansas City to face the Royals (4:10 PM ET). The odds have the Mets slight favorites at -128, with the Royals at +108, and the total sitting at 9.5 runs. Buckle up, because this pitching matchup has "volatility" written all over it.

On the mound for the Mets, Frankie Montas (1-1, 6.14 ERA) is still clearly shaking off the rust after his injury. Command has been shaky, his WHIP is high, and batters are teeing off to the tune of a .290 average. Not exactly inspiring confidence. For the Royals, Michael Lorenzen (5-8, 4.61 ERA) has been… serviceable, but inconsistent. He allows a ton of hard contact (1.38 WHIP) and hasn't exactly been shutting lineouts down. Honestly? Advantage: Batters tonight. Keep your eyes glued to the Mets' big bats: Juan Soto (.390 OBP, 22 HR) is due to erupt after a quiet series, Francisco Lindor is scorching hot (.308 last 10G, 6-game hit streak) and should feast on Lorenzen's fastball, and Pete Alonso (77 RBI) is bound to bounce back after an 0-7 stinker yesterday. For the Royals, it starts and ends with the red-hot Bobby Witt Jr. – riding a 14-game hit streak and hitting .400 over his last 10. He *lives* for meatballs like Montas has been serving up. Don't sleep on Vinnie Pasquantino's quiet power or Salvy Perez's ever-present threat to go yard, though the lineup depth drops off after those key guys.

Alright, let's get to the BETS. My LOCK OF THE DAY is Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105)**. This line feels like a gift. Witt has 21 hits in his last 14 games, including 5 XBH in his last 5. Montas's 6.14 ERA and propensity for hard contact? Yeah, Witt feasts. Book it. I'm also rolling with the UNDER 9.5 Runs (-115). Why? Both bullpens are elite – top 5 in ERA (Mets 3.59, Royals 3.51). The trends back it too: 6 of KC’s last 8 games stayed under. Expect early chaos from these starters, but the pens to lock it down late, especially with the Mets' bats cooling off yesterday. Finally, a small play on the Mets ML (-128). They're 35-20 as favorites this year, and KC's lineup beyond Witt/Pasq can be thin. But Montas scares me – that's why this is a lighter unit. Tread carefully.

Quick injury note: Mets are without Marte (knee) and Winker (back), and their pen is thin (Nunez, Butto IL). Royals miss Massey (ankle) and Canha (elbow), but their bullpen is healthier.

Final Thoughts: This game boils down to which starter implodes first. Lorenzen is hittable, Montas is wild – it could get messy early. But I trust those bullpens to clean it up. Witt is my absolute lock to keep raking, the under feels solid, and if Alonso wakes up like I expect, the Mets *should* edge out a tight one. But seriously, keep that Mets bet light because of Frankie.

Prediction: Mets 5, Royals 4 (UNDER hits).

Let's eat, family. Drop your takes below in the comments.