Mets-Phillies betting predictions and reactions 6/21/25

The Mets are desperate to snap a six-game losing streak, while the Phillies look to maintain their strong home form. This analysis breaks down the key elements of the matchup—pitching, recent performances, and head-to-head history—while also providing betting insights to guide your wagers.

Pitching Matchup

The pitching matchup is a critical factor in today’s game, and it heavily favors the Phillies. Philadelphia sends Mick Abel to the mound, a pitcher who has been a model of consistency this season with a 2-0 record and a 2.76 ERA. Wheeler’s last start showcased his dominance, as he allowed just one earned run over six innings while striking out nine. Meanwhile, the Mets counter with Blade Tidwell, who has struggled mightily in his limited appearances. Tidwell carries a 0-1 record and a 14.73 ERA, with his most recent outing a disaster—six earned runs in just 3.2 innings. This stark contrast suggests Abel could stifle the Mets’ offense, while Tidwell may struggle to contain the Phillies’ bats, giving Philadelphia a significant edge.

Recent Team Performances

Recent form further underscores the Phillies’ advantage. The Mets are reeling from a six-game skid, having been swept in consecutive series by Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Their offense has been particularly dismal, managing only 14 runs across those six games, with three contests where they scored one run or fewer. In contrast, the Phillies are thriving, especially at home, where they’ve won five of their last six games. Overall, they’ve posted an 9-2 record in their past ten outings, showcasing both offensive firepower and resilience. While the Mets did sweep the Phillies earlier this season at home, Philadelphia has historically dominated the rivalry, winning seven of the last ten meetings. Given current trends, the Phillies appear poised to capitalize on the Mets’ woes and assert their home-field advantage.

Anthony's Betting Analysis

From a betting perspective, the Phillies are the clear favorites, and the odds reflect this. The moneyline leans heavily toward Philadelphia, a logical choice given Wheeler’s prowess and the Mets’ struggles. Take the spread, set at Mets +1.5, offers toward the Mets covering, canning poor form makes this a gamble—Philadelphia could easily win by two or more runs if Abel dominates and the offense clicks.

Conclusion and Betting Recommendations

Today’s Mets-Phillies matchup shapes up as a tough test for New York. With Abel superior pitching, the Phillies’ red-hot form, and the Mets’ ongoing offensive drought, Philadelphia holds a commanding edge. For bettors, the safest play is the Phillies on the moneyline, reflecting their likelihood of victory. For those chasing bigger payouts, the Phillies -1.5 is a reasonable risk, especially if the offense exploits again early. The total is trickier, but the under 8.0 edges out as the smarter pick, banking on Abel ability to suppress the Mets’ bats. While the Mets’ bullpen could keep things close if Abek exits early, the Phillies’ momentum and home advantage make them the team to back on June 21, 2025.